Tuesday, May 10, 2016

GSE Stocks: My 6 Technical Picks regardless of Intrinsic Value

The Ghana Stock Exchange has been performing really bad so far this year. The GSE Composite Index is 9.20% down as at today and the GSE Financial Stock Index is even worse,  recording -11. 38% loss. It looks like there is no hope for there rest of the year although the economy is predicted to get better.
Looking through the various listed stocks,  I see a number of companies that are trading significantly lower than they used to trade in the past years when the market was performing averagely well.
Using my technical analyst's eye, I won't hesitate to buy shares in these companies knowing that when the stock market gets back booming,  they will go higher than their current market prices.

1.  HFC BANK (HFC). - HFC is currently trading at 0. 85p and has been trading lower than it has been in the past.  There could be other factors but looking at the General performance of the Financial Stocks this year,  I am hoping it will get back to the tens (that's trading around Ghc 1.2 - its current year high). 

2.  MECHANICAL LLOYD (MLC) - MLC is currently trading at 0.18p which happens to be its year low and  it recorded a year high of 0. 21p.  I have seen it trade around this range (20s range) for sometime and holding other factors constant,  It's making a nosedive due to the current pressure in the market.

3.  ALUWORKS (ALW) - ALW is currently trading at 0.09p and has probably experienced more pressure or shock from the systematic risk in the market than most companies. In the past years it has been trading in the double digits (around 0. 14p).  At a point in this year,  it went as low as 0.07p.
 
4.  ECOBANK TRANSNATIONAL INC (ETI) - ETI is currently 0.17p and heavily responsible for the market's down turn.  Trading of it is still active on the bourse and I won't hesitate to buy if my objective is long term focused. It recorded a year high of 0.27p.

5. STANDARD CHARTERED BANK (SCB) - SCB is currently trading at Ghc 15.10 and in my opinion it's quite lower than it's performance in the past years on the exchange.  Exactly a year ago,  it was trading at Ghc 20.29. There could be other factors causing it's current performance aside the risk in the economy but it's a buy for me.

6.  TOTAL PETROLEUM  (TOTAL )- TOTAL is currently trading at its year low, which is Ghc 4.3.  Last year,  it traded as high as Ghc 6.10 despite the global pressure on oil. As oil prices begin to see a improvement, we shall see how that will reflect in the price of TOTAL. 

So now you know my take based on historical performance of prices. As I mentioned,  there are alot more factors responsible for the price changes in securities on the GSE and could be why some are trading so low but my analysis did not regard any of those factors. One major systematic risk affecting the market is the attractively high returns from Government securities (e.g. Treasury bills) which serves as an alternative for investors. 

Friday, May 6, 2016

Ghana Stock Exchange Market Return History & Index Trend

For some time now I have been receiving calls and emails from friends and people, particularly MBA finance students for an access to the Ghana Stock Exchange market returns history for their various academic researches. Other analysts also request for this information but this has been missing from the website of GSE. You can get access to the full historically data of listed companies on the GSE but not that of the Composite Index or the Financial Stock Index.
The stock market has been operating since 1990 and a big thanks to Annual Reports Ghana, for capturing the year to year returns and trend of the indexes so well.  You can even get access to the time series of GSE indices upon request.

GSE Returns since inception:

click to enlarge
GSE RETURNS
Courtesy: www.annualreportsghana.com


GSE Return
DATE
INDEX
1990
-29.75%
GSE ALL SHARE INDEX
28-Dec-90
70.25
1991
-8.18%
30-Dec-91
64.51
1992
-3.62%
29-Dec-92
62.17
1993
113.73%
30-Dec-93
132.88
1994
124.35%
30-Dec-94
298.10
1995
6.33%
29-Dec-95
316.97
1996
13.82%
30-Dec-96
360.76
1997
41.85%
31-Dec-97
511.74
1998
69.69%
30-Dec-98
868.35
1999
-15.22%
29-Dec-99
736.16
2000
16.55%
29-Dec-00
857.98
2001
11.42%
31-Dec-01
955.95
2002
45.96%
30-Dec-02
1,395.31
2003
154.67%
31-Dec-03
3,553.42
2004
91.33%
31-Dec-04
6,798.60
2005
-29.72%
30-Dec-05
4,778.07
2006
5.21%
29-Dec-06
5,026.80
2007
31.21%
31-Dec-07
6,595.63
2008
58.16%
31-Dec-08
10,431.64
2009
-46.58%
31-Dec-09
5,572.34
2010
32.25%
31-Dec-10
7,369.21
2011
-3.10%
GSE CI
30-Dec-11
969.03
2012
23.81%
31-Dec-12
1,199.72
2013
78.81%
31-Dec-13
2,145.20
2014
5.40%
31-Dec-14
2,261.02
2015
-11.77%

31-Dec-15
1,994.91


click to enlarge
GSE TREND
Courtesy: www.annualreportsghana.com





















Note that, the Ghana Stock Exchange introduced the GSE COMPOSITE INDEX (a capitalisation weighted index, using VWAP of GSE-listed companies) in 2011, to replace the GSE ALL SHARE INDEX. Its base date and value is 31.12.10 and 1,000 respectively.

So now you have it. Email: info@annualreportsghana.com for more information on the Ghana Stock Exchange and Listed companies. 

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